Case study: South Africa: This paper describes a methodology to perform an initial evaluation to decide which vaccines, if any, may be worth manufacturing for a particular market. These methods do not constitute a comprehensive market analysis but form part of an initial concept-level business case analysis.

This step wise approach is demonstrated using a real life example, South Africa, as a country case study.

The document outlines each of the three phases which collectively comprise the methodology, and also details the next steps that would need to be taken to validate a business case.

Publicly available information on the existing South African vaccine manufacturer indicate that the conclusions drawn by this document relating to the South African market do in fact identify the key market opportunities there. This indicates that the methodology has delivered a valid assessment result in this particular case study, thus endorsing the approach taken. The results of the analysis may even provide insight as to why certain strategic decisions were made by the existing South African manufacturer, however further discussion on this point is beyond the remit and focus of this study.

The document supports and expands upon the white paper “Establishing Manufacturing Capabilities for Human Vaccines” published in 2017 and assumes the reader is familiar with the concepts introduced therein. This white paper was designed to give a basic overview of the vaccine industry and summarize key cost drivers and factors to consider when planning to establish a vaccine production facility.

The objective of the current paper is to demonstrate how a person endowed with knowledge of the vaccine industry and basic market data can determine the high-level feasibility of potential commercial vaccine opportunities in a market.